On Spam - The Case for a Flexible Force

Spam: the practice of utilizing multiple copies of a particular within a particular FOC in order to be able to have better odds of being able to rely on the specific capabilities of that unit type when they when needed.  At its heart – spamming is a way to “beat” the odds – or at the very least to tilt the odds in our favor.  This is a close cousin to the probabilities and odds behind Poker, Magic the Gathering (MTG), Bridge, Spades, Euchre, and Hearts, differing only in the random card draw mechanic rather than the roll of a dice.

With that in mind, a typical competitive list (just like a good MTG deck) has a balanced repertoire of duplicated functions and replica units; duplication = spamming = improving the odds = functional focus.   This functional focus is generally possible to achieve in 4-6 of the following focus areas with cross-over in varying amounts: psychic attack, psychic defense, anti-armor, anti-personnel, close combat, ranged shooting, durability, disruption, and fast movement.  I’m sure additional categories can be defined, but you get the idea. 

The conventional wisdom is that no truly competitive list can do everything; trying to do so dilutes efficiency from functional focus.  It logically follows that true competitive potential lies in maximizing the functional focus areas that are most point-efficient within a specific codex.  This is good game theory 101: no rubber stamp identical armies here!  Paper must face rock must face scissors!

But the idea of improved odds doesn’t entirely hold true.  Functional focus is at heart a lack of flexibility.  If I build a force that has capabilities A, B, C, and D; with two units in each, each unit with a 60% chance of success – I have a good chance of (only) those four capabilities functioning even with battle damage.  If I take capabilities A-H, also at 60% chance of functioning each – I have the equivalent chance, assuming battle damage, of four different capabilities functioning.  Obviously, there’s more mush and depends here than a whole suburb of rest homes – but if the idea is to bring a “take all comers” list, a really good general should be able to tailor which of those eight capabilities are most needed given the situation, and which are sacrificial.  It will change in every battle – it might even change from turn to turn.

So here's my theory: it should be possible to regularly beat functionally focused lists by being more flexible.  Less spam = more flexibility. 

Nasty, nasty theorycraft!  It burns – the stupid, it burns ussss!!   A good functionally focused list should have sufficient balance to deal with the single-unit bits of flexibility in a non-focused list.  Unless...  flexibility is the focus. 

After long study, I am coming to the conclusion that Tyranids may be one of the few codexes capable of pulling off an overwhelmingly flexible list, rather than spamming.  If everything on the board represents a different threat that requires a specific response, target priority goes out the window as paper faces rock and then there isn't enough paper to go around. 

Interestingly, this has sat on my computer in varying forms for weeks.  As I get ready to publish it I find this excellent ramble by TheGraveMind, which makes almost the exact same point – variance!  Bloody confirmation bias! 

This leads to a list concept I've been putting together in the back of my head for months now; but I’m having difficulty putting points to it to get it under 2k, and this is where I’m asking for some of your thoughts.  I consider the base of the force to be the warriors, tervigon, stealers, ymgarl, biovores, and tfex as described below; although the individual unit numbers can go up or down a bit.  

Hive Fleet Flexibilis:

  - Parasite of Mortrex (or a tervigon w/tox,ag,cat)
  - Prime w/BS, LW, DS, and regen (or tox)

  - HGx3 (or 6)
  - Zoanx3 (or none – or 2 and a spod)
  - ymgarlx8

  - tervigon,w/tox,ag,cat
  - 10x devilgaunts+spod (or just 10 devilgaunts, or just 10 gaunts)
  - 5x warriors with double BS, DS, tox, and VC
  - 15x tox stealers (possibly with broodlord) 

  - 15x gargs w/ag,tox

  - tfex w/rupture
  - 2x biovores

  - dakkafex or trygon w/ag or harpy w/tlhvc

How would you crystallize this down to 2k?